2025 02 VCM

The Fallacy of Forecast Accuracy

forecasting is merely an input to inventory control, and these two processes have very different objectives. The field of forecasting was built around the objective of making accurate predictions, while the objective of inventory control is and has always been about making effective and efficient decisions (i.e., at the lowest cost). To resolve this, we need to approach forecasting from an integrated perspective, where inventory control and forecasting are directly linked. In this white paper, we will specifically examine forecast accuracy and answer the question: does an accurate forecast undeniably lead to more effective decision-making in inventory control? And if not, how can we change this?

If there is one indispensable element of data-driven inventory control, it is forecasting. A well-thought-out and executed forecasting process leads to a significant competitive advantage. However, most businesses fail to establish a forecasting process that meets the necessary requirements to achieve this competitive advantage. But why? A large part of the answer lies in the fact that companies look at forecasting from a purely forecasting perspective. But is this not a good thing? One might think so. However, this would only be a good idea if forecasting were the main goal. In reality, at most companies,

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About Steven Pauly Steven Pauly is a research scientist at Slimstock, an international leader in forecasting and inventory optimisation. In this role, he researches and develops solutions to complex industry questions. He combines a strong theoretical knowledge with a client-oriented focus to bring theory into practice. He also serves as an international expert on inventory management and forecasting. Within Slimstock, he has set up the knowledge platform (‘Slimstock Academy’) and the research department, in which he is still active. Interested in finding out more? Make sure to follow us, Slimstock, or me, Steven Pauly, to stay updated when the next paper is released! Contact details:  s.pauly@slimstock.com |  +32 (0)15 83 28 45 |  steven-pauly

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